674
FXUS64 KSHV 090938
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
438 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024
Vast array of remnant outflows are present on the KSHV radar this
morning following the collapse of late Wednesday afternoon and
evening convection. These have supported some brief thunderstorms
across NW Louisiana that have since collapsed.
As of 2 AM CDT, the KSHV ASOS reported a temperature reading of 80
deg F over a 73 deg F dew point. At the same time, sfc obs across
the region still advertise persistant southerlies, indicating that
much of the Ark-La-Tex remains on the south side of the advancing
cold front to the north, and just east of an intersecting dry line
across South-Central Texas. How far south this cold front advances,
prior to stalling briefly late this morning, will set the stage
for where the best instability will be located this afternoon,
along with where the dominate convective evolution traverses by
the evening.
This afternoon through early Friday AM:
By this afternoon, general thinking is for the sfc boundary to be
located somewhere between the I-20 and I-30 corridor. To the west,
closer to the DFW metroplex, the influence of the dryline and cold
front intersection, along with additional forcing from a shortwave
trough across Texas, will allow for supercell thunderstorms to
initiate within another volatile environment ahead of the cold
front. As storms grow and multiply in coverage to the west of the
local FA, morning CAMs suggest gradual clustering, ultimately
supporting the development of a multi-cell complex that will
enter another impressive environment across the Ark-La-Tex. Once
again, sfc theta-e recovery will compliment SBCAPE profiles
exceeding 4000 J/kg along and south of the I-20 corridor, while
co-located in an area of 700-500 lapse rates above 8.0 C/km, with
moderate bulk shear values present. High temperatures in the upper
80`s and low 90`s this afternoon will only aid to the aforementioned
instability. Given the parameters available, general thinking is
for an evolving MCS to trek into the local FA, presenting the
threat for damaging straight line winds, hail and a few brief
embedded tornadoes.
Still some uncertainty surrounding the overall evolution and
strength of the possible MCS as it works across the CWA, with
more questions surrounding the swath of possible wind impacts. As
a result, the latest day 1 Storm Prediction Center Outlook has
expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to cover much of the
local FA.
Friday AM through the end of Short Term Period:
As the progged convective complex works east of the local area by
early Friday morning, southward advancement of the sfc boundary
will follow. The boundary should be located south of Toledo Bend
around sunrise, with high pressure quickly advancing into the
region. This will support drier conditions to end the week, with
an introduction to near-normal temperatures as we head into the
weekend.
RK
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024
While starting dry, the pattern once again turns towards the return
to rain chances to finish the weekend and heading into early next
week. Upper ridging overhead will shift eastward by Sunday afternoon
as large scale forcing supports the return of moderate precip and
embedded thunderstorms by the late afternoon and evening. The
pattern will continue into Monday as an upper-low parks across
north Texas and southern Oklahoma, prevailing synoptic forcing
locally to redevelop additional showers and thunderstorms.
Some members of the large scale guidance do suggest that rain
chances carry over into parts of Tuesday, so have elected to carry
those chances. A second story to the long term package will be the
gradual climb of maxT`s locally, starting in the low 80`s and
finishing close to 90 deg F by mid week.
RK
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024
Outflow boundary which pushed south and east from earlier
convection has disrupted the returning low IFR/MVFR ceilings
across most of our airspace so had to account for this with the
12z TAF package. That and we`re seeing some patchy 3-5sm VSBY
restrictions here and there on IR Imagery as well. Still think we
could see these lower ceilings develop over the next 3-4 hours or
so before we see a lifting cu field with ceilings returning back
to low VFR levels through the day. Did not make any changes to
VCTS timing from west to east across our airspace from late this
afternoon through the late evening hours. In the wake of the late
evening convection, should see returning VFR conditions towards
the tail end of this TAF package.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 68 84 62 / 20 60 0 0
MLU 91 66 83 59 / 20 50 0 0
DEQ 85 59 80 54 / 20 30 0 0
TXK 88 63 82 58 / 20 40 0 0
ELD 87 61 81 55 / 20 30 0 0
TYR 87 65 82 60 / 40 60 0 0
GGG 88 64 83 60 / 30 60 0 0
LFK 91 67 85 62 / 20 50 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion