000
FXUS64 KSHV 011155
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.AVIATION...

For the 01/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions continue to prevail as
high-level cirrus continues to be the primary cloud type. However,
some mid-level clouds are beginning to affect the LFK terminal as
an upper low to our SW continues to slowly lift northward across
SW Texas with convection following suit. As a result, some of this
convection may come close to LFK so have added VCSH this morning
and VCTS this afternoon at LFK. Otherwise, look for a cu field to
develop once again at all sites this afternoon before dissipating
with heating loss this evening. Winds will remain light overnight
and generally out of the east around 5-10 kts during the daytime
hours.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday/

The upper level pattern will begin to take on some subtle changes
through the short-term forecast period. Despite the dominant upper
level ridge we`ve seen recently, high cirrus clouds continue to
stream northward across the region in response to an upper level
low lifting northward from Mexico across the Rio Grande near the
Big Bend of Texas. Expect the convection around this upper low to
become more concentrated with increased heating later today, and
some of these shwrs and tstms may develop far enough eastward to
impact parts of Deep East Texas. Therefore, have maintained this
possibility with slight chance PoPs covering these areas in our
far SW zones through this afternoon. Beyond that, the remainder of
the region should remain dry with very seasonable temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s for afternoon highs. Overnight temperatures
will also continue to mirror climo for this time of year with lows
ranging through the 60s by early Tuesday morning.

Moving ahead through the day on Tuesday, look for the influence
of the upper level ridge to weaken slightly as the aforementioned
upper low lifts farther NE toward the middle Red River Valley. As
a result, expect increasing cloud cover along with slightly higher
rain chances across much of the region. Convective coverage should
become isolated to widely scattered by Tuesday afternoon during
peak heating hours with high temperatures mainly in the upper 80s
to lower 90s as low-level flow returns more S/SE later in the day.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night through Sunday Night/

The Srn Plains upper low remains progged to open up into a trough
and drift E across OK and Ncntrl TX Tuesday night, with any isolated
convection Tuesday afternoon expected to wane by sunset with bndry
lyr cooling/stabilization. This trough should drift SE over the
region Wednesday, with diurnal heating expected to yield isolated to
sct convection areawide, which should again diminish by sunset. This
weak trough should continue to ease into the Lower MS Valley
Thursday as the Srn Rockies/Nrn MX upper ridge begins to expand E
into the Srn Plains. Thus, any diurnal convection should become more
isolated and concentrated over Scntrl AR/much of Ncntrl LA Thursday
afternoon, before the weakening trough shifts SE of the region
Thursday night. With the expanding ridge axis will come stronger
subsidence, drier conditions, and thus, warming temps to round out
the new work week.

The latter portion of the extended becomes more interesting with a
general consensus amongst the ECMWF/GFS with the upper ridge axis
continuing to amplify/expand E over much of OK and the Ozarks
throughout the weekend, with broad low pressure aloft developing
over the Srn Gulf and drifting NNW across the Cntrl Gulf.
Considerable differences arise amongst the medium range progs during
the weekend with this low pressure area gradually developing into a
potential tropical system, with considerable uncertainties in the
track and timing of this system as it drifts towards the Cntrl or
Wrn Gulf coast. Overall, the progs have trended slower with the
potential impacts and thus, have trended pops down to slight chance
Saturday afternoon over Deep E TX and the Srn/Ern sections of Ncntrl
LA. Did maintain low to mid chance pops for these areas Sunday,
while expanding slight chance pops for much of SW AR/NW LA/E TX, but
this portion of the forecast will be subject to change given the
uncertainties of the track/speed of this system. A more amplified
and expanding ridge aloft as shown and in good agreement with the
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian late in the weekend may trend to deflect this
system farther WSW and into the middle or lower TX coast, which
would imply lessening impacts on much of our region and instead,
maintain the hot and dry conditions in place. Thus, all eyes should
continue to keep abreast to this developing potential tropical
system this weekend/early next week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  68  89  70 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  88  67  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  84  62  87  67 /   0   0  20  10
TXK  84  64  87  69 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  86  63  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  86  69  88  70 /  10  10  20  10
GGG  87  67  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
LFK  87  69  91  69 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/15

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion