000
FXUS64 KSHV 161759
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1259 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex, VFR now w/ MVFR decks down along I-10. Cirrus
will keep thin ovhd. SFC winds N5-15KT with gusts slacking off
now as high pressure over OK settles in and brings us a chilly
night down in the 40s with SKC and calm. ENE5-10KT for Thurs.
Aloft, climb winds are NE backing to NW 10-50KT. By FL240 winds
are W60KT and back to SW with 100KT or more near FL300. Chamber of
Commerce flying wx for the work week and into the weekend. Our
next wx maker will arrive on Sun. w/ more T`storms ahead of fropa.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1059 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today/

1026mb surface high has the front working across I-10 and off
shore this late morning. The low clouds continue to lift and thin
everywhere as the cooler and drier air deepens in this brisk low
level NE wind flow. The winds aloft become NW in the mid levels,
but still a WSW flow at cirrus level which will keep skies thinly
covered at times.

Temps are cooler N in the 50s and the better CCA is working
across I-20 now with falling dew points. Elsewhere low 60s will
approach 70 or so. Our forecasted highs should occur this mid
afternoon as the winds slack gusts and homogenize with the
relaxing pressure gradient. We should being seeing skies clear out
late today and this evening. As our winds quickly decouple at
sunset temps will plummet to 5 to 10 degrees below average by dawn.
At least there will be no wind chill to add at daybreak. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/
Early morning convection along cold front to quickly exit the
region to the south by daybreak. High pressure building behind the
cold front to advect drier air across the region. Temperatures
this afternoon to only make it into the mid 60s to around 70
before diving into the lower 40s overnight. Skies to generally
improve from the northwest throughout the day with north winds
around 10 to 15 mph. Otherwise, upper-level ridge to prevail
through Thursday with mainly clear skies and afternoon high
temperatures in the lower 70s. /05/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Area will remain partially under influence of sfc high pressure,
centered over Ohio Valley, while srn stream cut-off low over the Big
Bend of TX manages to drift ewd as it merges with open wave trough
quickly movg eastward. A warming trend underway as the weekend
begins, as upper flow becomes swly ahead of our next trof.

Medium chances of Tropical Disturbance to strengthen to T.S status
as it begins to approach nrn gulf coastline by beginning of wknd.
Still keeping pops low initially, until cold front begins to
approach area from the north Sunday night. Influence of tropical
feature could either enhance or cut off gulf flow, depending on its
positioning and potential onshore movement. Meanwhile a weak cold
front to the north expected to wash out in increasingly zonal flow
as the shortwave lifts newd Saturday.

As main upper trof to finally eject into the Plains Sunday, bringing
convection along the stalled front as it churns ewd. Final push will
come Sunday night into Monday, with rain finally ending by the end
of the pd Monday night. Will keep most pops in chance category, with
high end chance to low end likely pops expected with fropa late
Sunday night into Monday, with rainfall ending Monday night./07/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  47  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  69  46  71  52 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  68  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  44  71  49 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  67  43  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  67  47  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  67  46  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  70  51  71  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/05/07

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion