000
FXUS64 KSHV 180310
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/

The evening sfc analysis continues to indicate the low level
circulation of what is left of Nicholas located between RSN and
MLU, with the more concentrated deeper convection having
diminished shortly after sunset. However, radar and sfc obs still
indicate areas of wrap-around -RA over Lincoln and Union Parishes,
with this expected to persist overnight near and NW of this
circulation and attendant H925-850 trough extending from the SE
AR/NE LA SW into the Lower Toledo Bend Country. Have bumped up
pops to low/mid chance near the low level circulation center over
the Ern sections of NCntrl LA, with this feature progged to drift
slowly W overnight. Did maintain slight chance pops farther W
across much of SW AR/Wrn LA but dropped mention over E TX well W
of the slowly retrograding inverted low level trough. It remains
unclear how much farther W this weak circulation will drift, but
will remain the focus for additional sct convection development
Saturday especially from Srn AR across much of N LA and farther W
into E TX/SE OK. Did not make many changes to min temps tonight,
as low cigs are expected to develop and quickly spread back W
across SW AR/remainder of N LA into extreme Ern TX late tonight.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will continue this evening, with lower cigs
(IFR to MVFR) and reduced vsbys possible over portions of NCntrl
LA/SCntrl AR near and N of the low level circulation of what is
left of Nicholas spinning just SW of MLU. Sct convection should
persist through a portion of the evening near this circulation
center before diminishing, but this area will be the focus for
additional isolated to widely sct convection development
overnight. Have continued VCSH mention for MLU through much of the
evening with tempo -SHRA mention, with MVFR/IFR cigs developing
later this evening over this area and spreading W across Srn AR/N
LA overnight. MVFR cigs should eventually spread into portions of
extreme Ern TX late tonight, eventually affecting GGG/LFK, but
should stay just E of TYR through daybreak. However, brief MVFR
cigs will be possible here through portions if not much of the
morning, with diurnal heating contributing to the development of
sct convection once again from mid morning through the afternoon near
the low level circulation which should still linger over N LA.
Have inserted VCSH mention for most terminals to account for the
sct convection development, although the potential will exist for
embedded thunder especially during the afternoon within the
stronger cells. Have inserted VCTS for the E TX terminals given
that they should destabilize more than areas farther E, as these
areas gradually return back to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR cigs
will persist though elsewhere across the region through the
remainder of the TAF period. Lt/Vrb or calm winds tonight will
become NE 4-7kts over E TX/SW AR/NW LA, and ESE around 5kts across
NCntrl LA. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  86  72  87 /  20  60  30  60
MLU  72  86  72  87 /  30  80  50  90
DEQ  69  87  69  86 /  10  40  10  50
TXK  72  85  72  85 /  20  50  20  50
ELD  70  84  70  83 /  30  80  40  70
TYR  72  89  72  88 /  10  30  10  30
GGG  71  88  71  86 /  10  40  20  40
LFK  72  89  71  89 /  10  50  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion