095
FXUS64 KSHV 290620
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
- Very warm and dry conditions will continue areawide today and
Friday, as above normal temperatures persist.
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop and
increase across much of the region Friday night through
Saturday, but should begin to diminish for those trick-or-
treaters across East Texas and Western Louisiana.
- While a reprieve in the rains is expected Sunday and much of
Monday, showers and thunderstorms containing much needed
wetting rains will spread into the region Monday evening
through Tuesday before much cooler and drier conditions return
for the latter half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
The early morning satellite imagery indicates extensive bands of
thin cirrus which continue to spread E across the region, with
these elevated cigs expected to gradually thicken through the day
today as the first in a series of shortwave troughs develop over
Cntrl Old MX and lifts NNE into Wrn and Cntrl TX this afternoon.
Also seeing some areas of elevated cu developing beneath the
cirrus shield over portions of ECntrl TX and SE OK, which remains
progged to fill more NE with time today near the center of the H850
ridge which will gradually shift into the Mid-South region. As was
the case Wednesday afternoon, the cu field may be stubborn to
scatter out across portions of E TX/adjacent SW AR and SE OK,
although the short term progs continue to suggest that a wedge of
low level dry air will mix back W across much of N LA and Srn AR
later today. Enough insolation should occur today over the Ern
half of the area before the cirrus shield thickens later this
afternoon as the drier air mixes W, such that min RH`s will range
from 25-35% over Srn AR/N LA, and result in an elevated wildfire
threat even in the presence of light Erly bndry lyr winds. The
thickening elevated cigs should result in slightly milder
overnight temps tonight, as radiational cooling will be reduced,
but the drier bndry lyr air (lower dewpoints) will still maintain
cool/comfortable conditions.
The short term progs continue to suggest another developing
shortwave trough that will traverse the Big Bend Region of TX
tonight/Friday morning, advancing NE through the Srn Plains
through the day and through the region Friday evening/night. The
thickening moisture profile should result in slightly cooler
daytime temps Friday, although much of the day should remain dry
before increasing large scale ascent along the trough axis and low
level moisture advection contributes to the development of
scattered convection over much of the area Friday night. QPF
amounts do not look very appreciable with this event, which may
diminish in time for the evening trick-or-treaters at least over
much of E TX and possibly portions of Wrn LA Saturday evening.
Regardless, the various progs have sped up the departure of these
embedded disturbances aloft Saturday night, leading to a warm,
humid, and dry Sunday.
These dry conditions will be short-lived though as longwave
troughing develops over the Great Basin Sunday, and shifts ESE
through the Rockies/Four Corners Region Monday as an upper low
begins to close off over NM and Far W TX. While ridging aloft will
be prevalent over the area Monday ahead of this deep troughing,
thus maintaining very warm and dry conditions in place, increasing
low level moisture advection and large scale ascent ahead of the
trough will yield an increase in convection Monday afternoon over
the Srn Plains, before gradually spreading E into the region
Monday night and especially Tuesday. The 00Z runs of the GFS/ECMWF
have trended even slower than previous runs with the
development/movement of this convection, developing along and
potentially behind a sfc dryline, before cooler and much drier air
is able to sweep into the area beneath and behind this closed
low/trough. While the potential for organized rains producing
widespread beneficial rains appear likely (with QPF`s of 1-3
inches possible), any severe threat is much more uncertain, given
the continued timing uncertainties of the arrival of the best
ascent/front and its placement with respect to the better
instability axis as indicated in the various AI and ML guidance.
Once this system is able to traverse the region by the midweek
timeframe, cooler and more seasonable temps with the return to dry
conditions are expected for the latter half of the new work week.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
High thin cirrus once again is increasing from west to east across
our airspace late this evening and expect this to continue through
the overnight hours into the daytime hours on Thursday. Likewise,
expect a gradual lowering of moisture with ceilings near 14kft or
higher by late in the TAF period across our western half. Cu field
will also be possible across our I-20 terminals and points south but
with low VFR heights ranging from near 4-6kft. In other words, VFR
conditions should prevail across all terminal locations for this TAF
period. Look for east to southeast winds with speeds under 10kts
thru the period as well.
13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
An elevated wildfire threat will continue today especially across
Southwest Arkansas, North Louisiana, and portions of extreme
Eastern Texas, as a combination of low relative humidity and
critically to extremely dry fuels will help spread any wildfires
that ignite. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Spotter activation may be needed today in the event of wildfire
development. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 58 80 63 / 0 0 0 30
MLU 85 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 84 59 80 58 / 0 0 0 30
TXK 84 60 80 59 / 0 0 0 30
ELD 85 53 80 57 / 0 0 0 30
TYR 83 63 80 61 / 0 10 10 30
GGG 84 59 80 60 / 0 0 0 30
LFK 84 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion