540
FXUS64 KSHV 300521
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
A narrow swath of convection continues to lift northward along the
I-49 corridor of extreme NW LA and SW AR, expanding farther west
into parts of NE TX and eventually McCurtain County in SE OK over
the next few hours. This is occurring in an unstable environment
with upwards of 3000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE so expect the ongoing
convection to maintain its current intensity with locally strong
wind gusts and small hail possible as it moves north and west of
Texarkana and across the Red River. For this update, did trend
PoPs slightly higher generally along the I-30 corridor where the
majority of active convection is located. Did remove PoPs farther
south toward the I-20 corridor now that all of the convection has
shifted northward. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on
track this evening through the overnight hours.
/19/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
The main concern in the short term period (through 7 AM CDT
Thursday) is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall and a risk for
severe thunderstorms, both focused on areas mainly along and
northwest of the I-30 corridor tomorrow and tomorrow night. A
Flash Flood Watch was just issued for locations in far SE OK and
along and northwest of the I-30 corridor, covering the period from
7 AM CDT tomorrow through 7 AM CDT Thursday. A widespread 1 to 3
inches of rainfall is possible in the watch area through 7 AM CDT
Thursday, but there is the potential for at least isolated
locations to receive 5 or more inches of rainfall in the watch,
which is concerning - especially given the nearly saturated state
of the ground there already. Also of concern is obviously the
severe weather threat, mainly for tomorrow afternoon through
tomorrow evening in these areas (and also at least marginally
extending further SE into the heart of the Arklatex). All modes of
severe weather are possible, although damaging winds associated
with bowing thunderstorm line segments are the highest relative
threat.
Most of the short term weather risks will begin around late
morning to early afternoon tomorrow as the bulk of an upper level
disturbance really starts to bring atmospheric lift to the region
in an environment at least moderately unstable. A nearly stalled
front just north of our area now will have drifted a little south
by tomorrow with this boundary being the primary focus for
training storms and overall storm development. This boundary will
be in a position to bring at least an outside severe thunderstorm
threat to our far northwest locations (i.e., NW of the I-30
corridor) mainly this evening, with a general areas respite
expected late tonight into tomorrow morning. Some isolated showers
and storms cannot be ruled out elsewhere, mainly along and north
of the I-20 corridor, through early this evening with isolated to
scattered showers and storms anticipated tomorrow afternoon and
overnight in areas outside of the primary severe weather and heavy
rainfall threats mentioned for tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Otherwise, anticipate very warm temperatures with readings
generally remaining at least 5 to 10 degrees above average for the
time of year. /50/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Weather conditions look to remain unsettled and wet through
Thursday and Friday as the aforementioned front in the short term
remains oscillating in the Four State region as an additional
upper level disturbance or two moves across the region and
interacts with moderate instability and this front. At least Marginal
threats for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will likely
continue for these days. Temperatures will remain at least
somewhat above normal until this front clears through the area.
Fortunately, there is decent NWP consensus for our region to be on
the backside of disturbances with the front clearing to our SE
after Friday night, leaving seasonal temperatures and largely dry
conditions the most likely scenario for the bulk of the weekend.
Right now, long range NWP op and ensemble models suggest the
return of rain and storm chances holding off until Tuesday of next
week. /50/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
For the 30/06Z TAFs, VFR skies will deteriorate through the coming
hours, as IFR/MVFR CIGs overspread ArkLaTex airspace towards
daybreak. Showers and storms look to begin to impact the region
early, largely remaining north of the I-30 corridor, with impacts
to KTXK possible during the morning. Storms will become more
widespread into the afternoon across the region, with locally
heavy rainfall and severe weather impacts possible. Southerly
winds will remain fairly light overnight, picking up during the
day tomorrow to maximum sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts with
gusts of 15 to 25 kts possible, and locally higher values in the
vicinity of stronger storms.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Spotter activation is possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
evening, especially along and northwest of the Interstate Thirty
corridor, due to a combined severe weather and flash flooding
threat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 71 87 67 / 30 60 50 30
MLU 87 70 86 65 / 10 30 70 30
DEQ 81 63 82 60 / 80 90 30 20
TXK 85 66 86 64 / 60 80 50 20
ELD 86 65 84 61 / 20 60 60 30
TYR 85 69 86 66 / 80 70 30 20
GGG 85 68 86 65 / 60 70 40 20
LFK 86 70 88 67 / 40 50 50 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning
for ARZ050-051-059>061-070.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning
for OKZ077.
TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning
for TXZ096-097-108>112.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...26
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion