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Storm Prediction Center Outlook Day 4-8

Outlook Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Day 4-8

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4 Tue, Feb 19, 2019 - Wed, Feb 20, 2019 D7 Fri, Feb 22, 2019 - Sat, Feb 23, 2019
D5 Wed, Feb 20, 2019 - Thu, Feb 21, 2019 D8 Sat, Feb 23, 2019 - Sun, Feb 24, 2019
D6 Thu, Feb 21, 2019 - Fri, Feb 22, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Forecast Discussion for Outlook Day 4-8