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Storm Prediction Center Outlook Day 4-8

Outlook Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Day 4-8

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4 Mon, Sep 20, 2021 - Tue, Sep 21, 2021 D7 Thu, Sep 23, 2021 - Fri, Sep 24, 2021
D5 Tue, Sep 21, 2021 - Wed, Sep 22, 2021 D8 Fri, Sep 24, 2021 - Sat, Sep 25, 2021
D6 Wed, Sep 22, 2021 - Thu, Sep 23, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Categories
NWS defines a severe thunderstorm as measured wind gusts to at least 58 MPH, and/or hail to at least one inch in diameter, and/or a tornado. All thunderstorm categories imply lightning and the potential for flooding. Categories are also tied to the probability of a severe weather event within 25 miles of your location.
No Severe
Thunderstorms Expected
threats exist with
all thunderstorms.
● Winds to 40 MPH
● Small hail
Isolated Severe
Thunderstorms Expected
Limited in duration
and/or coverage
and/or intensity.
● Winds to 40–60 MPH
● Hail up to 1 inch
● Low tornado risk
Scattered Severe
Thunderstorms Expected
Short-lived and/or not
widespread, isolated
intense storms possible.
● One or two tornadoes
● Reports of strong
 winds/wind damage
● Hail approx 1 inch,
 isolated 2 inch
Numerous Severe
Thunderstorms Expected
More persistent
and/or widespread,
a few intense.
● A few tornadoes
● Several reports of
 wind damage
● Damaging hail, 1-2 inch
Widespread Severe
Thunderstorms Expected
and intense.
● Strong tornadoes
● Widespread wind
● Destructive hail, approx
 2 inches plus
Widespread Severe
Thunderstorms Expected
Long-lived, very
widespread and
particularly intense.
● Tornado outbreak
● Derecho

Forecast Discussion for Outlook Day 4-8